Technology

Solar modules have two important market factors - cost and efficiency.

Today over 90% of solar cells are made from bulk silicon, either single crystal or polysilicon, which result in expensive but high efficiency solar cells. Typical silicon usage is 10 grams/watt based on a 200 micron thick wafer. Polysilicon prices are high and there is a world-wide shortage.

AOS technology uses less than 0.5 grams/watt of polysilicon based on a 10 micron "thick film". Based on research to date we project achieving polysilicon PV efficiencies while using 1/20 the materials and at 40% of the energy budget and 40% of the capital cost at the 100MW annual production level versus alternate silicon PV manufacturing technologies.

Typical efficiencies of single layer thin film a-Si solar cells are low, so efficiencies are improved by adding another layer, resulting in two active layers or a tandem junction module. The efficiency of tandem junction modules using Applied Materials or Oerlikon equipment today is at 8.5 %. There is limited potential to improve the efficiency beyond 12%. AOS technology will be able to achieve 16 - 18% efficiency over time for a single layer / single junction device and 22 - 24 % for a double layer / tandem junction device.

Solar PV today meets a very small fraction of global electricity needs, while thin film is projected to grow at 60%+ annually over the next decade by the Prometheus Institute, among others. Prices for PV modules have been stable to rising based upon rapid growth in demand.

The market clearing prices for both crystalline and thin film solar modules can be checked at www.solarbuzz.com reliably.

On January 15th the lowest price for thin film modules was $3.66/Wp (€2.49/Wp). Per Watt/Peak is a standard solar industry measure of price/performance. We propose that any technology that can manufacture solar panels under $1/Wp in volume during the 2010 - 2012 time period has excellent profit and growth potential.